Not all themes are created equally.
A lot of the themes we cover have sub-themes and various moving parts. Clean Energy is just one example. Predicting when specific energy sources will be come to fruition is a tricky game; Solar’s been around since the 1970’s, while we might not see Hydrogen hit the mass-market until the end of this decade.
How can you predict which clean technology will reach maturation point first?
Well, Clean Edge1 have plotted the expected mass-market availability and the cost competitiveness across a host of clean technologies.
Source: Clean Edge, 2021
Take Green Hydrogen. Clean Edge forecast it to be roughly seven years away from both cost competitiveness and mass-market availability. But could a combination of the policy tailwinds and innovation-driven improvement in economics, quicken this?
The proposed landmark $550bn Infrastructure Bill in the United States assigns $9.5bn to the hydrogen sector, spelling out an aim to reduce costs and create a coherent national strategy for wide-scale production, processing, delivery and storage of clean hydrogen. Whisper it quietly, but this could be positive news for early investors into the green hydrogen story.
Elsewhere, the Bill will allocate $7.5 billion to expand electric vehicle charging to under-serviced areas (almost double all prior public investment by utilities, states AND the government). It also represents the first-ever national investment in Electric Vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in the US. With EV sales hitting records and forecasts of nearly 70% of the total car market to be plug-in cars 20402 - more charging infrastructure is badly needed.
The same Bill aims to make cities more climate-resilient by retrofitting over 2 million homes and offices, while also cutting building pollution. Buildings too have a major part to play in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. The emissions which buildings produce account for a large portion of the global footprint (think lighting, heating, cooling). In another article we take a closer look at a company which is offering net zero buildings as a service.
Finally, who knows what the final Infrastructure Bill will look like if or indeed when it passes through the House. But, to be clear, Clean Edge published its model a full two months before the first Bill had even passed through the Senate.
1 *Clean Edge are a world leading expert and the original sell side research firm in clean technology.
2 Source: Bloomberg NEF, 2021
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