Microsoft & Activision: What's the Play? 


Q2 2022

23 May | 5 mins

Key takeaways

  • What's behind Microsoft's planned acquisition of Activision Blizzard valued at $68.7billion - the largest acquisition in its history?
  • Microsoft is clearly taking gaming seriously -  with the addition of Activision Microsoft will control 14% of the industry.
  • Could this be about the Metaverse? the deal looks like it could play a critical role in the development of the Metaverse.

When Microsoft announced its intent to acquire Activision Blizzard in an all-cash transaction valued at $68.7 billion, the largest acquisition in its history, investors were keen to understand the play. So what is it that Microsoft is actually after here?

Firstly, it clearly shows intent to secure a much larger piece of the gaming industry, currently valued upwards of $200 billion. As we’ve mentioned previously, gaming is big business: currently around 3 billion people play video games, with that number predicted to jump 50% by 2030.1 With new business models like games as a subscription, games as a service, cloud gaming, and micro-transactions (digital purchases users can make in a game) among others, the industry is undergoing meaningful innovation. Against this backdrop the deal makes a lot of sense.

If the deal is successful (and not blocked by the FTC – more on this below) it would make Microsoft the third largest gaming company globally by revenue, following Sony Interactive Entertainment and Tencent. Microsoft’s gaming business generated $15 billion in revenue in fiscal 2021 while Activision generated a further $9 billion.

What this effectively means is that with the addition of Activision Microsoft will control 14% of the industry. Microsoft is clearly taking gaming seriously: it first ventured into video gaming in 2001 with the release of the Xbox console, in 2014 it paid $2.5 billion to acquire Mojang, which makes Minecraft and in 2017 it was an early mover in the games as a subscription business model with its offering “Game Pass” which today has over 25 million active subscribers. And just last year, Microsoft acquired ZeniMax Media for $7.5 billion, which served to bring a further eight different game studios under its umbrella.

Today, Microsoft’s’ gaming division includes 23 game design and software studios and hundreds of games, and all this is before the addition of Activision. And it is hard to understate what Microsoft would be gaining in terms of Activision Blizzard’s standing in today’s gaming industry, between its very profitable franchises, including Call of Duty, Overwatch, World of Warcraft and Diablo, its mobile game division King, of Candy Crush fame, alongside driving $8.1 billion in revenue in 2020 (a 25% increase from the year before).






IS THIS REALLY ABOUT THE METAVERSE?

The second part of the narrative comes into what gaming actually means to Microsoft. When speaking about the deal it seems as though Satya Nadella is seeking a dual-track model for Microsoft, “Gaming has been key to Microsoft since our earliest days as a company, today it’s the largest and fastest-growing form of entertainment, and as the digital and physical worlds come together, it will play a critical role in the development of metaverse platforms.”

So what of the metaverse angle? Well its very much applicable in a gaming context - with online games essentially representing the original metaverse experience with their many virtual worlds spanning decades. More recent games such as Roblox, Fortnite and Animal Crossing: New Horizons allow players to create their own universe potentially leading indicators for what the internet may become. There is a social dimension to these games, entire communities that connect online, a Travis Scott concert held within Fortnite drew more than 12 million concurrent views.

And companies are certainly realising there’s money in these metaverse-type gaming experiences, Gucci debuted the Gucci Garden, a two-week art installation aiming to increase brand recognition with younger demographics, inside Roblox. And we’re just getting started. In this context, it certainly makes sense that Microsoft wants in on the action.

So will the deal make it past the FTC? Well Warren Buffett seems to think it stands a good chance. The renowned investor announced he had been increasing his stake in Activision Blizzard since the deal was announced in a calculated merger arbitrage play. The company is still trading lower than the $95 a share offer price from Microsoft so Buffett would stand to profit if the deal closes.2

Why should thematic investors care? Well there’s a multitude of reasons. The metaverse is not only a theme in itself but it overlaps with several megatrends shaping our future – digitalisation, blockchain, cloud computing, streaming and gaming, consumer technology and broad innovation. Not to mention that many of these technologies will be needed to underpin and shape the metaverse experience. And the more online universes created, the more there are to secure, driving the need for cybersecurity. So whether or not investors are believers in the metaverse, there are many ways thematic investors may profit from its development.

1 Source: Fortune Business Insights, NewZoo
2 Source: Activision (ATVI) closed at $76.94 on the 14th May 2022

References to specific companies should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments issued by those companies, and neither should they be assumed profitable.

This material does not constitute research for MiFID purposes.

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