Mind the Infrastructure Gap: Smart GRID and Electrification 


Q2 2022

4th May | 8 mins

Key takeaways

  • The world is rushing to decarbonise its economy but without smart grids there will be no energy transition.
  • Electricity demand is forecast to more than double between now and 2050, with renewables set to outpace all other sources of power.
  • Globally the current grid infrastructure is outdated, meaning significant investments are needed across the grid landscape, presenting investors with a clear opportunity. 

The world is rushing to decarbonise its economy.

The scale of investment needed to achieve net zero infrastructure is hard to quantify. 195 countries are coursing ahead to meet the terms of the Paris Agreement and so the pace, magnitude and cost required to go ‘green’ has to be addressed.

BloombergNEF1 estimate that in order to meet net zero commitments, investment in energy supply and infrastructure of between $92 trillion and $173 trillion is needed over the next three decades. To achieve this, annual investment will need to more than double, from around $1.7 trillion per year today, to between $3.1 trillion and $5.8 trillion a year on average over the next three decades.

To put it simply, the world can’t afford not to act.

1Source: BloombergNEF 2021

There will be No Energy Transition without the Smart Grid

The investment needed to make this possible is vast, and so is the speed of transition required, with renewables predicted to grow 60% faster by 2026 than in the last five years.

This is largely thanks to global commitments, combined with cost competitiveness and developments of solar and wind generation.

In short, there will be no energy transition without smart grids.

But we see a path to zero-carbon electricity: electricity demand is forecast to more than double between now and 2050, with renewables set to outpace all other sources of power, with the share of renewable energy set to increase from 8% to 69% by 2050. 

The Grid of the Future

The "smart grid" is the transformation of how we produce, distribute, use and store energy.

Our existing grid infrastructure is outdated, unable to handle soaring consumer demand, and acting as a handbrake to our move to an electric future. Below we show the main differences between traditional grids (which have changed so little they would be recognisable to Thomas Edison!) and the smart grid of the future.



The next big step for the energy transition is the ‘electrification of everything’ . Put simply: most of the energy we use will come from an electric socket. It probably isn’t too much of a leap as a concept. If you’ve been caught without power at any point in recent years, you’ll be all too aware that much of what we rely on in everyday life is powered by electricity – our phones, coffee machines, our laptops, ovens, our headphones, and even our wearables. Electrification is happening whether or not we’ve made an active decision to ‘electrify’. And this trend is only set to accelerate. We may not be headed to the ‘electrification of everything’ but we are certainly moving to the electrification of most things.

Mind the Infrastructure Gap

“Last year, the average American home endured more than eight hours without power, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration — more than double the outage time five years ago.”

The Washington Post, 24th October 2021

As we mentioned previously, the current, global grid infrastructure is outdated, meaning significant investments are needed across the grid landscape.

If we look to the US, according to the latest Infrastructure Report Card from The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), the US currently has a funding gap of nearly $200bn for the electricity segment alone!

This probably isn’t much of a surprise given we’ve seen its power grid plagued by blackouts over the last few years, with the current grid infrastructure vulnerable to disruptions caused by extreme weather, cyberattacks and interference. The chart below from the US Department of Energy shows that since 2000, the number of blackouts on the U.S. grid has leapt nearly 13-fold.

"MAJOR DISTURBANCES AND UNUSUAL OCCURANCES" ON US GRID
2000 to 2021

Source: https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/OE417_annual_summary.aspx


Clearly, there are plenty of issues to address as far as our grid infrastructure is concerned.

We’ve heard a lot of confusion recently around Biden’s Infrastructure Plans with many investors confusing the ‘Build Back Better’ Plan with the Infrastructure Bill.

To clarify, President Biden’s recent $1trillion infrastructure package passed and as part of the Bipartisan infrastructure framework, $73 billion will be spent towards building power infrastructure – by far the largest amount ever spent to modernise the U.S. electric grid. This includes establishing a new Grid authority to oversee power infrastructure upgrades.

And this is just the beginning, the global smart grid market is projected to grow from $35.07 billion in 2021 to $140.53 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 21.9%.

Some more encouraging news? 2021 was a record year for the clean energy transition.

Historic public and private sector investment, increased consumer demand and supportive new policies propelled growth in the energy transition. Global private investment soared to $755 billion in 2021.

The U.S. set a record at $105 billion. These are historic levels of new investment for decarbonisation efforts.

We also saw record EV sales, not to mention record contributions to the grid from renewable power sources. As the impact of climate change, geopolitical events and the related disruption of energy markets reverberates globally, the upward trends we saw in 2021 should set the stage for an even stronger 2022.



References to specific companies should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell shares or other financial instruments issued by those companies, and neither should they be assumed profitable. You should consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before investing.


 

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